A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
